[NK Provocation Index][0] Intro

  • North Korean’s military provocations and nuclear threats are likely to hamper Korean Economic Growth
  • Possible Channel : Increased risk lead to Investment, Saving to decrease
  • X(N.K. Provocation)  (–> X'(Investment, saving(consumption) rate)  –> Y(Economic Growth)
  • Identification 1 : Measuring the degree of N.K. Provocation by number of articles belong to ‘Provocation/Nuclear threats’ topic (LDA topic model)
  • Identification 2 : Causality? VAR may be helpful